Practices

Read the world, price the risk, build the thing that lets you act on it.

Two practices, one discipline. Whether the risk is geopolitical or institutional, the work is the same: name the exposure, quantify it, and turn it into a decision.

Practice I: The read

Geopolitical & Country Risk

For investors, funds, boards & operators
  • Country & political risk memos. Grounded security, political, and macro assessments across the US, the CIS countries, and West Africa.
  • US policy analysis. Reading US foreign policy, the Federal Reserve's trajectory, and banking & regulatory change for their market and credit consequences.
  • Sanctions exposure mapping. Counterparty screening and compliance-aware structuring. Analysis, not legal advice.
  • Market entry & counterparty diligence. Local frameworks (UEMOA, BCEAO, OHADA), how deals get done, and who to work with.
  • Scenario construction & weighting. Three-to-five coherent paths with explicit probabilities and financial consequence.
  • Counter-terror & illicit-finance risk. Informed by regional programme coordination across the Sahel and the Lake Chad basin.
  • Chokepoint & corridor exposure. Maritime chokepoints, trade corridors and the physical routes a book depends on, monitored rather than assumed.
  • Rates, metals and the macro tape. The Federal Reserve’s path, real yields and official-sector gold demand, read for what they do to a sovereign’s financing and a lender’s book. The macro inputs to the risk view, not a positioning call.
  • Bespoke country-risk scoring. Structured, source-weighted scoring frameworks built to a mandate or book.
US foreign policyFed & ratesMetals & real yieldsCISUEMOA/BCEAO/OHADASanctions
Practice II: The build

Credit & Portfolio Risk

For banks, lenders & finance teams
  • Stress testing. Top-down on the filings, carried through to capital, with the assumptions documented for the people who will question them.
  • Scenario analysis. Macro paths built to your balance sheet: rates, credit and growth driven through earnings and capital, with the reasoning stated so it can be argued with.
  • Concentration & portfolio analytics. CRE prongs against the interagency guidance, industry, geography and borrower concentration, rating migration and DSCR trends.
  • Model governance & validation support. Development standards, procedure documentation, and validation-ready model management.
  • Banking-policy & regulatory analysis. Reading supervisory and regulatory change, from Basel to allowance guidance and examination priorities, for portfolio impact.
  • Monitoring & early warning. Watchlist rules and dashboards built to a specific book, with the data pipelines behind them.
  • Peer selection & benchmarking. Comparison groups built on loan mix, funding and geography rather than asset size, with the definition written down first.
  • Board and examiner reporting. The standing quarterly read written up so a committee can act on it and an examiner can follow it.
  • Investor-grade financial models. Reconciled models, scenario engines, and investor credit memos.
  • Liquidity & interest-rate risk. Funding ladders by time bucket, uninsured deposit behaviour, and the rate path driven through earnings and capital.
Stress testingScenario analysisModel governanceMonitoring toolsAutomation
Selected work

Evidence, not adjectives.

A sample of past engagements across the practices. Some detail is generalized to respect client confidentiality.

01
Bank credit-risk infrastructure
Stress-test dashboards, model-governance documentation and allowance automation across a large C&I and CRE portfolio, built to survive a validation and an examination, not only to produce a number.
Credit Risk
02
Belarus Country Dossier
A full country read covering political, fiscal, sanctions and counterparty exposure, commissioned by companies weighing entry into the market, and carried through from the assessment to what it would cost them.
Country Risk
03
Lumi Dental, Dubai
Investor-grade financial model, scenario engine, business plan and credit memo for a boutique medical-tourism venture, reconciled so that the four documents could not disagree with one another.
Financial Modeling
04
Behavioral-health clinic, Abidjan
Full projections and business plan for a facility operating under a dual US and local entity structure, where the structure itself drove most of the assumptions.
Modeling · Market Entry
Work together

Which practice fits your problem?

Tell us the exposure you're weighing and we'll point you to the right one, or tell you if it's out of scope.

Get in touch See the products