Two practices, one discipline. Whether the risk is geopolitical or institutional, the work is the same: name the exposure, quantify it, and turn it into a decision.
Firms come to us with the country nobody has written up, the counterparty whose ownership nobody has traced, the corridor or exposure nobody has priced. We read primary sources, in the original language where that matters.
For investors, funds, boards & operators
Brent reached $117 in April and has since given back about sixty per cent of the move. Over the same months, tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz stayed at roughly a tenth of normal.
Read the analysis →A full file on a country the desk does not yet cover: the five pillars computed, the judgment layer written, and a read that says what would have to change for the score to move.
A named path, whether sanctions, a devaluation, a succession or a border closure, carried through to what it does to your exposure, with the assumptions stated so they can be argued with.
Who actually owns the firm, across the corporate register, the leak record and the state’s own structure. This is the question a name on a contract does not answer.
Your counterparties and their owners read against the designation lists and the regimes behind them, with the secondary-sanctions reach stated rather than assumed.
Pull a supplier out and see what cannot be replaced. That is the counterfactual behind every sanctions argument, measured against what the registers actually record moving.
Which ports, corridors and straits your goods depend on, what each one carries, and what a closure of any of them does to the route and to the cost.
Decision support only. Not investment, legal, tax, or sanctions-compliance advice.
Banks, credit unions and the boards and advisers who answer to examiners retain us for the analysis a filing cannot produce on its own. Documented to survive a validation and an examination.
For banks, lenders & finance teams
Tioga-Franklin's last Call Report showed its liquidity as the strongest thing about it. Its capital and problem assets had been public, quarterly and unambiguous for two and a half years, ending at a Texas ratio of 257%.
Read the analysis →Lynx runs the standing version on your filed numbers. The engagement builds the scenarios to your book, to your concentrations, your funding and your growth plan, and produces the documented run an examiner or a board can be walked through.
The loan-level counterpart, which no filing supports: your loan file, borrower by borrower, aggregated back up and reconciled to the top-down result. The gap between the two is usually the finding.
Beyond the CRE prongs the platform tracks against the 100/300 guidance: industry, geography, borrower and guarantor concentration on your own exposures, with limits, migration and the policy language to support them.
Deal-level credit analysis: borrower and guarantor strength, structure and covenants, and a documented second look before commitment. The one service here that starts from a credit file rather than a filing.
Scenario Studio drives rates, credit and growth through your capital and earnings inside the platform. The engagement is where the assumptions get built and defended: what path, on what evidence, and what it would take to be wrong.
The platform tracks the rulemaking, guidance and enforcement stream and flags what touches your profile. The assessment is the read on top: what applies to you, on what timetable, and what to do about it before the exam.
Decision support only. Not accounting, audit, or investment advice.
Three markets, followed daily and in depth, from the macro tape down to the individual bank, sovereign or sanctions regime that carries the risk.
The home market, read where risk actually lives: the individual institution. Lynx analyses every FFIEC and NCUA filing in the country, with rates and metals as the macro overlay.
See Lynx →The post-Soviet space, read from primary sources most Western firms treat as a black box. Russian-language fluency and a long-standing academic focus on the region turn opacity into an edge.
See Renard →Firsthand knowledge of the regional frameworks, BRVM, BCEAO and OHADA, applied across the wider region: the banking systems, the sovereigns that stand behind them, and the country risk underneath both.
See Renard →Take a seat in the platform, commission a defined deliverable, or retain standing counsel. Most relationships begin with one piece of work and deepen.
A sample of past engagements across the practices. Some detail is generalized to respect client confidentiality.
Tell us the exposure you're weighing and we'll point you to the right practice, or tell you if it's out of scope.